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Sirius vs Malmo FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Sirius
Sirius
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
7/19/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 15Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Sirius41%
×Draw24%
Malmo FF35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sirius
1.58
Malmo FF
1.44

Sirius creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sirius
1.96
Malmo FF
1.68

allows per match

Sirius
1.21
Malmo FF
1.21

finishing

Sirius+0.37scores more
Malmo FF+0.07on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sirius or draw
65%
Sirius or Malmo FF
76%
Draw or Malmo FF
59%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+
20%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals
79%
Sirius 2+ goals
47%
Sirius 3+ goals
21%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
76%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
42%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)
54%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.21 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.96 + Malmo FF defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.58

Malmo FF attack 1.68 + Sirius defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sirius scores more
41%
level
24%
Malmo FF scores more
35%

Sirius at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sirius vs Malmo FF

Malmo FF beat Sirius 4-3 in Allsvenskan on July 19, 2024.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.