Sirius vs IFK Goteborg — Allsvenskan 2026
Sirius are unbeaten in 9 straight
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 17+ matches
Sirius49%
IFK Goteborg28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sirius creates 38% more chances
Season form · 25 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sirius ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sirius at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.25 · 25 matches
IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sirius attack 1.97 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75
IFK Goteborg attack 1.29 + Sirius defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Sirius at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Even after scoring first, IFK Goteborg win only 20%
- 91% of Sirius’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Both sides lean high-scoring (91% and 72% over 2.5)
- Sirius have scored in 11 games running
- Both teams score in 82% of Sirius’s matches
- 72% of IFK Goteborg’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesHead-to-head
10 previous meetings
Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sirius host IFK Goteborg on Sunday, 26 July 2026 at 12:00. The match is part of the Allsvenskan 2026/2027 season.
Preview: Sirius host IFK Goteborg
July 26, 2026: Sirius take on IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
Sirius host IFK Goteborg at Studenternas IP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.