Sirius 0–1 IFK Goteborg: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

IFK Goteborg

7/20/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 16Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Sirius42%

×Draw24%

IFK Goteborg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchIFK Goteborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.43

Sirius

1.62

IFK Goteborg

1.43

Sirius creates 13% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 127 away

1.71

creates per match

1.29

1.56

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Sirius

1.71

IFK Goteborg

1.29

allows per match

Sirius

1.56

IFK Goteborg

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par

IFK Goteborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

IFK Goteborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

66%

Sirius or IFK Goteborg

76%

Draw or IFK Goteborg

58%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

21%

IFK Goteborg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

80%

Sirius 2+ goals

48%

Sirius 3+ goals

22%

IFK Goteborg 1+ goals

76%

IFK Goteborg 2+ goals

42%

IFK Goteborg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

55%

IFK Goteborg (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.56 · 126 matches

IFK Goteborg away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.53 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.71 + IFK Goteborg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.62

IFK Goteborg attack 1.29 + Sirius defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sirius scores more

42%

level

24%

IFK Goteborg scores more

34%

Sirius at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff