Sirius 1–0 Helsingborg: Result & Stats

Sirius

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Helsingborg

4/17/2022

Allsvenskan · Round 3Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sirius51%

×Draw23%

Helsingborg27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SiriusExpected goals in this matchHelsingborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.29

Sirius

1.86

Helsingborg

1.29

Sirius creates 44% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 46 away

1.71

creates per match

1.02

1.56

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Sirius

1.71

Helsingborg

1.02

allows per match

Sirius

1.56

Helsingborg

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par

Helsingborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Helsingborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sirius or draw

73%

Sirius or Helsingborg

77%

Draw or Helsingborg

49%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+

28%

Helsingborg wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals

84%

Sirius 2+ goals

55%

Sirius 3+ goals

28%

Helsingborg 1+ goals

72%

Helsingborg 2+ goals

37%

Helsingborg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)

66%

Helsingborg (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.56 · 126 matches

Helsingborg away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.71 + Helsingborg defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.86

Helsingborg attack 1.02 + Sirius defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sirius scores more

51%

level

23%

Helsingborg scores more

27%

Sirius at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff