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Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall — Allsvenskan 2018

Sirius
Sirius
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
5/15/2019AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 9Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sirius50%
×Draw23%
GIF Sundsvall27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sirius
1.80
GIF Sundsvall
1.26

Sirius creates 43% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sirius
1.71
GIF Sundsvall
0.96

allows per match

Sirius
1.56
GIF Sundsvall
1.89

finishing

Sirius+0.00on par
GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

GIF Sundsvall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sirius or draw
73%
Sirius or GIF Sundsvall
77%
Draw or GIF Sundsvall
50%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+
28%
GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals
83%
Sirius 2+ goals
54%
Sirius 3+ goals
27%
GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
72%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
36%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)
65%
GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.56 · 126 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.89 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 1.71 + GIF Sundsvall defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.80

GIF Sundsvall attack 0.96 + Sirius defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sirius scores more
50%
level
23%
GIF Sundsvall scores more
27%

Sirius at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Sirius 1–0 GIF Sundsvall

Sirius beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 in Allsvenskan on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.