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Sirius vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2026

Sirius
Sirius
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
8/25/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 20Studenternas IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sirius59%
×Draw22%
Djurgardens IF18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sirius
1.86
Djurgardens IF
0.93

Sirius creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sirius
2.24
Djurgardens IF
0.91

allows per match

Sirius
0.94
Djurgardens IF
1.48

finishing

Sirius+0.56scores more
Djurgardens IF+0.23scores more

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirius ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sirius or draw
82%
Sirius or Djurgardens IF
78%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
41%

Winning margin

Sirius wins by 2+
34%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sirius 1+ goals
84%
Sirius 2+ goals
55%
Sirius 3+ goals
28%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
61%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
24%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sirius (draw refunded)
76%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirius at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirius attack 2.24 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.86

Djurgardens IF attack 0.91 + Sirius defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sirius scores more
59%
level
22%
Djurgardens IF scores more
18%

Sirius at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sirius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Sirius 0–1 Djurgardens IF

Djurgardens IF beat Sirius 1-0 in Allsvenskan on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Studenternas IP in Uppsala.