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Sirijus Klaipėda vs Utenis Utena — Cup 2020

Sirijus Klaipėda
Sirijus Klaipėda
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Utenis Utena
Utenis Utena
4/11/2026CupCup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sirijus Klaipėda37%
×Draw18%
Utenis Utena46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sirijus Klaipėda
2.88
Utenis Utena
3.21

Utenis Utena creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sirijus Klaipėda
1.75
Utenis Utena
1.67

allows per match

Sirijus Klaipėda
4.75
Utenis Utena
4.00

finishing

Sirijus Klaipėda+0.00on par
Utenis Utena+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

90%Yes
  • Yes90
  • No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sirijus Klaipėda ↓

Utenis Utena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–24%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
85%15%4.5
71%29%

Double chance

Sirijus Klaipėda or draw
54%
Sirijus Klaipėda or Utenis Utena
82%
Draw or Utenis Utena
63%

Winning margin

Sirijus Klaipėda wins by 2+
21%
Utenis Utena wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Sirijus Klaipėda 1+ goals
94%
Sirijus Klaipėda 2+ goals
78%
Sirijus Klaipėda 3+ goals
54%
Utenis Utena 1+ goals
96%
Utenis Utena 2+ goals
82%
Utenis Utena 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Sirijus Klaipėda (draw refunded)
44%
Utenis Utena (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
88%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sirijus Klaipėda at home — creates 1.75, concedes 4.75 · 4 matches

Utenis Utena away — creates 1.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sirijus Klaipėda attack 1.75 + Utenis Utena defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Utenis Utena attack 1.67 + Sirijus Klaipėda defence 4.75 → ÷2 → 3.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sirijus Klaipėda scores more
37%
level
18%
Utenis Utena scores more
46%

Utenis Utena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Utenis Utena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sirijus Klaipėda 4–1 Utenis Utena

Sirijus Klaipėda beat Utenis Utena 4-1 in Cup on April 11, 2026.