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Siquinalá vs Iztapa — Liga Nacional 2019

Siquinalá
Siquinalá
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Iztapa
Iztapa
12/8/2019Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 22Estadio Municipal Mateo Sicay Paz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Siquinalá49%
×Draw24%
Iztapa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siquinalá
1.73
Iztapa
1.23

Siquinalá creates 41% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 82 away

creates per match

Siquinalá
1.33
Iztapa
0.95

allows per match

Siquinalá
1.50
Iztapa
2.12

finishing

Siquinalá+0.00on par
Iztapa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siquinalá ↓

Iztapa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Siquinalá or draw
73%
Siquinalá or Iztapa
76%
Draw or Iztapa
51%

Winning margin

Siquinalá wins by 2+
26%
Iztapa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Siquinalá 1+ goals
82%
Siquinalá 2+ goals
52%
Siquinalá 3+ goals
25%
Iztapa 1+ goals
71%
Iztapa 2+ goals
35%
Iztapa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Siquinalá (draw refunded)
64%
Iztapa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siquinalá at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Iztapa away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siquinalá attack 1.33 + Iztapa defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.73

Iztapa attack 0.95 + Siquinalá defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Siquinalá scores more
49%
level
24%
Iztapa scores more
27%

Siquinalá at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Siquinalá will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Siquinalá 0–1 Iztapa

Iztapa beat Siquinalá 1-0 in Liga Nacional on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Mateo Sicay Paz in Siquinalá.