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Sioni vs Zugdidi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Sioni
Sioni
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zugdidi
Zugdidi
8/16/2020Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 8Stadioni Tamaz Stepania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sioni55%
×Draw24%
Zugdidi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sioni
1.70
Zugdidi
0.95

Sioni creates 79% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 24 away

creates per match

Sioni
1.98
Zugdidi
0.96

allows per match

Sioni
0.94
Zugdidi
1.42

finishing

Sioni+0.00on par
Zugdidi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sioni ↓

Zugdidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sioni or draw
79%
Sioni or Zugdidi
76%
Draw or Zugdidi
45%

Winning margin

Sioni wins by 2+
30%
Zugdidi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sioni 1+ goals
82%
Sioni 2+ goals
51%
Sioni 3+ goals
24%
Zugdidi 1+ goals
61%
Zugdidi 2+ goals
25%
Zugdidi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sioni (draw refunded)
72%
Zugdidi (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sioni at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.94 · 88 matches

Zugdidi away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sioni attack 1.98 + Zugdidi defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.70

Zugdidi attack 0.96 + Sioni defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sioni scores more
55%
level
24%
Zugdidi scores more
21%

Sioni at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sioni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sioni vs Zugdidi

Sioni beat Zugdidi 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadioni Tamaz Stepania in Bolnisi.