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Sioni vs Merani Martvili — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Sioni
Sioni
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
5/9/2025Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 11Tamaz Stepania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Sioni54%
×Draw23%
Merani Martvili23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sioni
1.81
Merani Martvili
1.10

Sioni creates 65% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sioni
1.98
Merani Martvili
1.27

allows per match

Sioni
0.94
Merani Martvili
1.64

finishing

Sioni+0.00on par
Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sioni ↓

Merani Martvili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sioni or draw
77%
Sioni or Merani Martvili
77%
Draw or Merani Martvili
46%

Winning margin

Sioni wins by 2+
30%
Merani Martvili wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sioni 1+ goals
84%
Sioni 2+ goals
54%
Sioni 3+ goals
27%
Merani Martvili 1+ goals
67%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
30%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sioni (draw refunded)
70%
Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sioni at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.94 · 88 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sioni attack 1.98 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.81

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Sioni defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sioni scores more
54%
level
23%
Merani Martvili scores more
23%

Sioni at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sioni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Sioni 2–2 Merani Martvili

Sioni and Merani Martvili drew 2-2 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Tamaz Stepania Stadium in Bolnisi.