Sioni 7–0 Kolkheti Khobi: Result & Stats

Sioni

FT

7 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kolkheti Khobi

11/2/2024

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 31Stadioni Tamaz Stepania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sioni66%

×Draw19%

Kolkheti Khobi15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SioniExpected goals in this matchKolkheti Khobi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.94

Sioni

2.23

Kolkheti Khobi

0.94

Sioni creates 137% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 36 away

1.98

creates per match

0.94

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Sioni

1.98

Kolkheti Khobi

0.94

allows per match

Sioni

0.94

Kolkheti Khobi

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sioni+0.00on par

Kolkheti Khobi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sioni ↓

Kolkheti Khobi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sioni or draw

85%

Sioni or Kolkheti Khobi

81%

Draw or Kolkheti Khobi

34%

Winning margin

Sioni wins by 2+

43%

Kolkheti Khobi wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sioni 1+ goals

89%

Sioni 2+ goals

65%

Sioni 3+ goals

38%

Kolkheti Khobi 1+ goals

61%

Kolkheti Khobi 2+ goals

24%

Kolkheti Khobi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sioni (draw refunded)

82%

Kolkheti Khobi (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sioni at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.94 · 88 matches

Kolkheti Khobi away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.47 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sioni attack 1.98 + Kolkheti Khobi defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.23

Kolkheti Khobi attack 0.94 + Sioni defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sioni scores more

66%

level

19%

Kolkheti Khobi scores more

15%

Sioni at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sioni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff