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Sioni vs Dinamo Tbilisi II — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Sioni
Sioni
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
10/2/2025Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 26Tamaz Stepania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sioni58%
×Draw21%
Dinamo Tbilisi II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sioni
2.02
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.14

Sioni creates 77% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sioni
1.98
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.34

allows per match

Sioni
0.94
Dinamo Tbilisi II
2.07

finishing

Sioni+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sioni ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sioni or draw
79%
Sioni or Dinamo Tbilisi II
79%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi II
42%

Winning margin

Sioni wins by 2+
34%
Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sioni 1+ goals
87%
Sioni 2+ goals
60%
Sioni 3+ goals
33%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
68%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sioni (draw refunded)
73%
Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sioni at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.94 · 88 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sioni attack 1.98 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.02

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.34 + Sioni defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sioni scores more
58%
level
21%
Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
21%

Sioni at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sioni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Sioni 1–2 Dinamo Tbilisi II

Dinamo Tbilisi II beat Sioni 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on October 2, 2025.

The match was played at Tamaz Stepania Stadium in Bolnisi.