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Sioni vs Chikhura Sachkhere — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Sioni
Sioni
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
9/19/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 25Stadioni Tamaz Stepania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sioni73%
×Draw17%
Chikhura Sachkhere10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sioni
2.29
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.69

Sioni creates 232% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sioni
1.98
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.44

allows per match

Sioni
0.94
Chikhura Sachkhere
2.61

finishing

Sioni+0.00on par
Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sioni ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sioni or draw
90%
Sioni or Chikhura Sachkhere
83%
Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere
27%

Winning margin

Sioni wins by 2+
49%
Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sioni 1+ goals
90%
Sioni 2+ goals
66%
Sioni 3+ goals
40%
Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
50%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
15%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sioni (draw refunded)
88%
Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sioni at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.94 · 88 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sioni attack 1.98 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.29

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.44 + Sioni defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Sioni scores more
73%
level
17%
Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
10%

Sioni at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Sioni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Sioni 2–0 Chikhura Sachkhere

Sioni beat Chikhura Sachkhere 2-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadioni Tamaz Stepania in Bolnisi.