Sioni 0–5 Chikhura Sachkhere: Result & Stats

Sioni

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Chikhura Sachkhere

5/19/2019

Erovnuli Liga · Round 14Stadioni Tamaz Stepania (Bolnisi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sioni39%

×Draw26%

Chikhura Sachkhere35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SioniExpected goals in this matchChikhura Sachkhere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.30

Sioni

1.38

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 28 away

1.18

creates per match

0.93

1.68

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Sioni

1.18

Chikhura Sachkhere

0.93

allows per match

Sioni

1.68

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sioni+0.00on par

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sioni ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sioni or draw

65%

Sioni or Chikhura Sachkhere

74%

Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere

61%

Winning margin

Sioni wins by 2+

18%

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sioni 1+ goals

75%

Sioni 2+ goals

40%

Sioni 3+ goals

16%

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals

73%

Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals

37%

Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sioni (draw refunded)

52%

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sioni at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sioni attack 1.18 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.93 + Sioni defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sioni scores more

39%

level

26%

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more

35%

Sioni at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sioni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff