Sioni 1–1 Aragvi Dusheti: Result & Stats

Sioni

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aragvi Dusheti

4/26/2026

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 9Tamaz Stepania Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sioni56%

×Draw25%

Aragvi Dusheti19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SioniExpected goals in this matchAragvi Dusheti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.84

Sioni

1.64

Aragvi Dusheti

0.84

Sioni creates 95% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 35 away

1.98

creates per match

0.74

0.94

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Sioni

1.98

Aragvi Dusheti

0.74

allows per match

Sioni

0.94

Aragvi Dusheti

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sioni+0.00on par

Aragvi Dusheti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sioni ↓

Aragvi Dusheti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sioni or draw

81%

Sioni or Aragvi Dusheti

75%

Draw or Aragvi Dusheti

44%

Winning margin

Sioni wins by 2+

31%

Aragvi Dusheti wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sioni 1+ goals

81%

Sioni 2+ goals

49%

Sioni 3+ goals

23%

Aragvi Dusheti 1+ goals

57%

Aragvi Dusheti 2+ goals

21%

Aragvi Dusheti 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sioni (draw refunded)

75%

Aragvi Dusheti (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sioni at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.94 · 88 matches

Aragvi Dusheti away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sioni attack 1.98 + Aragvi Dusheti defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.64

Aragvi Dusheti attack 0.74 + Sioni defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sioni scores more

56%

level

25%

Aragvi Dusheti scores more

19%

Sioni at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sioni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff