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Sion II vs Terre Sainte — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Sion II
Sion II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Terre Sainte
Terre Sainte
8/26/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sion II54%
×Draw22%
Terre Sainte25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sion II
2.00
Terre Sainte
1.29

Sion II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sion II
1.83
Terre Sainte
1.23

allows per match

Sion II
1.35
Terre Sainte
2.16

finishing

Sion II+0.00on par
Terre Sainte+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sion II ↓

Terre Sainte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sion II or draw
75%
Sion II or Terre Sainte
78%
Draw or Terre Sainte
46%

Winning margin

Sion II wins by 2+
31%
Terre Sainte wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sion II 1+ goals
86%
Sion II 2+ goals
59%
Sion II 3+ goals
32%
Terre Sainte 1+ goals
72%
Terre Sainte 2+ goals
37%
Terre Sainte 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sion II (draw refunded)
69%
Terre Sainte (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sion II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.35 · 60 matches

Terre Sainte away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sion II attack 1.83 + Terre Sainte defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.00

Terre Sainte attack 1.23 + Sion II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sion II scores more
54%
level
22%
Terre Sainte scores more
25%

Sion II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sion II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Sion II 3–0 Terre Sainte

Sion II beat Terre Sainte 3-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Tourbillon in Sion.