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Sion II vs Portalban / Gletterens — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Sion II
Sion II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Portalban / Gletterens
Portalban / Gletterens
5/4/20251. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 27Stade St-Germain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sion II48%
×Draw24%
Portalban / Gletterens29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sion II
1.74
Portalban / Gletterens
1.29

Sion II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sion II
1.83
Portalban / Gletterens
1.22

allows per match

Sion II
1.35
Portalban / Gletterens
1.65

finishing

Sion II+0.00on par
Portalban / Gletterens+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sion II ↓

Portalban / Gletterens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sion II or draw
71%
Sion II or Portalban / Gletterens
76%
Draw or Portalban / Gletterens
52%

Winning margin

Sion II wins by 2+
26%
Portalban / Gletterens wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sion II 1+ goals
82%
Sion II 2+ goals
52%
Sion II 3+ goals
25%
Portalban / Gletterens 1+ goals
72%
Portalban / Gletterens 2+ goals
37%
Portalban / Gletterens 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sion II (draw refunded)
63%
Portalban / Gletterens (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sion II at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.35 · 60 matches

Portalban / Gletterens away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sion II attack 1.83 + Portalban / Gletterens defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.74

Portalban / Gletterens attack 1.22 + Sion II defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sion II scores more
48%
level
24%
Portalban / Gletterens scores more
29%

Sion II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sion II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Sion II 1–4 Portalban / Gletterens

Portalban / Gletterens beat Sion II 4-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stade St-Germain in Savièse.