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Sion II vs Köniz — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Sion II
Sion II
FT
1 – 1
Köniz
Köniz
5/22/20211. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Relegation Round - 4Stade de Tourbillon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sion II50%
×Draw22%
Köniz28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sion II
2.04
Köniz
1.49

Sion II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sion II
1.22
Köniz
1.20

allows per match

Sion II
1.78
Köniz
2.85

finishing

Sion II+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sion II ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sion II or draw
72%
Sion II or Köniz
78%
Draw or Köniz
50%

Winning margin

Sion II wins by 2+
29%
Köniz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sion II 1+ goals
87%
Sion II 2+ goals
60%
Sion II 3+ goals
33%
Köniz 1+ goals
77%
Köniz 2+ goals
44%
Köniz 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sion II (draw refunded)
64%
Köniz (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sion II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 36 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sion II attack 1.22 + Köniz defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.04

Köniz attack 1.20 + Sion II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sion II scores more
50%
level
22%
Köniz scores more
28%

Sion II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sion II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Sion II 1–1 Köniz

Sion II and Köniz drew 1-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Tourbillon in Sion.