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Siofok vs Főnix — NB III - Southwest 2019

Siofok
Siofok
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Főnix
Főnix
4/6/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 23Révész Géza utcai stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Siofok64%
×Draw18%
Főnix18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siofok
2.56
Főnix
1.31

Siofok creates 95% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Siofok
1.53
Főnix
1.40

allows per match

Siofok
1.23
Főnix
3.60

finishing

Siofok+0.00on par
Főnix+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siofok ↓

Főnix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Siofok or draw
82%
Siofok or Főnix
82%
Draw or Főnix
36%

Winning margin

Siofok wins by 2+
43%
Főnix wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Siofok 1+ goals
92%
Siofok 2+ goals
72%
Siofok 3+ goals
46%
Főnix 1+ goals
73%
Főnix 2+ goals
38%
Főnix 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Siofok (draw refunded)
78%
Főnix (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siofok at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Főnix away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siofok attack 1.53 + Főnix defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.56

Főnix attack 1.40 + Siofok defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Siofok scores more
64%
level
18%
Főnix scores more
18%

Siofok at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Siofok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siofok vs Főnix

Siofok and Főnix drew 2-2 in NB III - Southwest on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Révész Géza utcai stadion in Siófok.