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Siofok vs Dunaföldvár — NB III - Southwest 2019

Siofok
Siofok
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dunaföldvár
Dunaföldvár
3/22/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 21Révész Géza utcai stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Siofok61%
×Draw19%
Dunaföldvár19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siofok
2.31
Dunaföldvár
1.23

Siofok creates 88% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Siofok
1.53
Dunaföldvár
1.23

allows per match

Siofok
1.23
Dunaföldvár
3.10

finishing

Siofok+0.00on par
Dunaföldvár+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siofok ↓

Dunaföldvár →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Siofok or draw
81%
Siofok or Dunaföldvár
81%
Draw or Dunaföldvár
39%

Winning margin

Siofok wins by 2+
39%
Dunaföldvár wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Siofok 1+ goals
90%
Siofok 2+ goals
67%
Siofok 3+ goals
40%
Dunaföldvár 1+ goals
71%
Dunaföldvár 2+ goals
35%
Dunaföldvár 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Siofok (draw refunded)
76%
Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siofok at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Dunaföldvár away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siofok attack 1.53 + Dunaföldvár defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.31

Dunaföldvár attack 1.23 + Siofok defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Siofok scores more
61%
level
19%
Dunaföldvár scores more
19%

Siofok at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Siofok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Siofok vs Dunaföldvár

Siofok beat Dunaföldvár 2-0 in NB III - Southwest on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Révész Géza utcai stadion in Siófok.