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Sintrense vs Rio Ave — Taça de Portugal 2018

Sintrense
Sintrenseadvanced
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
10/19/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sintrense27%
×Draw21%
Rio Ave52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sintrense
1.49
Rio Ave
2.11

Rio Ave creates 42% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sintrense
1.25
Rio Ave
2.09

allows per match

Sintrense
2.13
Rio Ave
1.73

finishing

Sintrense+0.00on par
Rio Ave+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sintrense ↓

Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sintrense or draw
48%
Sintrense or Rio Ave
79%
Draw or Rio Ave
73%

Winning margin

Sintrense wins by 2+
12%
Rio Ave wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Sintrense 1+ goals
77%
Sintrense 2+ goals
44%
Sintrense 3+ goals
19%
Rio Ave 1+ goals
88%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
62%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Sintrense (draw refunded)
35%
Rio Ave (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sintrense at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sintrense attack 1.25 + Rio Ave defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.49

Rio Ave attack 2.09 + Sintrense defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sintrense scores more
27%
level
21%
Rio Ave scores more
52%

Rio Ave at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sintrense vs Rio Ave

Sintrense beat Rio Ave 3-2 in Taça de Portugal on October 19, 2025.