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Sintrense vs Estrela Vendas Novas — Taça de Portugal 2018

Sintrense
Sintrense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Estrela Vendas Novas
Estrela Vendas Novas
9/22/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstadio do Sport União Sintrense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sintrense37%
×Draw23%
Estrela Vendas Novas41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sintrense
1.63
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sintrense
1.25
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.33

allows per match

Sintrense
2.13
Estrela Vendas Novas
2.00

finishing

Sintrense+0.00on par
Estrela Vendas Novas+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sintrense ↓

Estrela Vendas Novas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sintrense or draw
59%
Sintrense or Estrela Vendas Novas
77%
Draw or Estrela Vendas Novas
63%

Winning margin

Sintrense wins by 2+
18%
Estrela Vendas Novas wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sintrense 1+ goals
80%
Sintrense 2+ goals
48%
Sintrense 3+ goals
22%
Estrela Vendas Novas 1+ goals
82%
Estrela Vendas Novas 2+ goals
52%
Estrela Vendas Novas 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sintrense (draw refunded)
47%
Estrela Vendas Novas (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sintrense at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Estrela Vendas Novas away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sintrense attack 1.25 + Estrela Vendas Novas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Estrela Vendas Novas attack 1.33 + Sintrense defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sintrense scores more
37%
level
23%
Estrela Vendas Novas scores more
41%

Estrela Vendas Novas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Estrela Vendas Novas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Sintrense 2–1 Estrela Vendas Novas

Sintrense beat Estrela Vendas Novas 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio do Sport União Sintrense in Sintra.