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Sintrense vs Anadia — Taça de Portugal 2018

Sintrense
Sintrense
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Anadia
Anadia
9/29/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstadio do Sport União Sintrense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Sintrense28%
×Draw22%
Anadia49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sintrense
1.41
Anadia
1.92

Anadia creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sintrense
1.25
Anadia
1.71

allows per match

Sintrense
2.13
Anadia
1.57

finishing

Sintrense+0.00on par
Anadia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sintrense ↓

Anadia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sintrense or draw
51%
Sintrense or Anadia
78%
Draw or Anadia
72%

Winning margin

Sintrense wins by 2+
13%
Anadia wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Sintrense 1+ goals
76%
Sintrense 2+ goals
41%
Sintrense 3+ goals
17%
Anadia 1+ goals
85%
Anadia 2+ goals
57%
Anadia 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Sintrense (draw refunded)
36%
Anadia (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sintrense at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Anadia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sintrense attack 1.25 + Anadia defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Anadia attack 1.71 + Sintrense defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sintrense scores more
28%
level
22%
Anadia scores more
49%

Anadia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Anadia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Sintrense 0–0 Anadia

Sintrense and Anadia drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio do Sport União Sintrense in Sintra.