Sinop Fc 0–0 Santa Cruz MT: Result & Stats

Sinop Fc

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Santa Cruz MT

5/31/2026

Matogrossense 2 · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sinop Fc51%

×Draw30%

Santa Cruz MT19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sinop FcExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz MT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.61

Sinop Fc

1.22

Santa Cruz MT

0.61

Sinop Fc creates 100% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.60

creates per match

0.83

0.40

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Sinop Fc

1.60

Santa Cruz MT

0.83

allows per match

Sinop Fc

0.40

Santa Cruz MT

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sinop Fc+0.00on par

Santa Cruz MT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinop Fc ↓

Santa Cruz MT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Sinop Fc or draw

81%

Sinop Fc or Santa Cruz MT

70%

Draw or Santa Cruz MT

49%

Winning margin

Sinop Fc wins by 2+

23%

Santa Cruz MT wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sinop Fc 1+ goals

70%

Sinop Fc 2+ goals

34%

Sinop Fc 3+ goals

12%

Santa Cruz MT 1+ goals

46%

Santa Cruz MT 2+ goals

13%

Santa Cruz MT 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Sinop Fc (draw refunded)

73%

Santa Cruz MT (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinop Fc at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Santa Cruz MT away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinop Fc attack 1.60 + Santa Cruz MT defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.22

Santa Cruz MT attack 0.83 + Sinop Fc defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sinop Fc scores more

51%

level

30%

Santa Cruz MT scores more

19%

Sinop Fc at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sinop Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff