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Sinop Fc vs Linense — Serie D 2018

Sinop Fc
Sinop Fc
Pens
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Linense
Linense
6/9/2018Serie DSerie D · 16th FinalsEstádio Municipal Massami Uriú (Sinop, Mato Grosso)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sinop Fc46%
×Draw28%
Linense26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sinop Fc
1.30
Linense
0.90

Sinop Fc creates 44% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sinop Fc
1.43
Linense
0.50

allows per match

Sinop Fc
1.29
Linense
1.17

finishing

Sinop Fc+0.00on par
Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinop Fc ↓

Linense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sinop Fc or draw
74%
Sinop Fc or Linense
72%
Draw or Linense
54%

Winning margin

Sinop Fc wins by 2+
21%
Linense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sinop Fc 1+ goals
73%
Sinop Fc 2+ goals
37%
Sinop Fc 3+ goals
14%
Linense 1+ goals
59%
Linense 2+ goals
23%
Linense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sinop Fc (draw refunded)
64%
Linense (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinop Fc at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Linense away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinop Fc attack 1.43 + Linense defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Linense attack 0.50 + Sinop Fc defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sinop Fc scores more
46%
level
28%
Linense scores more
26%

Sinop Fc at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sinop Fc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Sinop Fc 1–0 Linense

Sinop Fc beat Linense 1-0 in Serie D on June 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Massami Uriú (Sinop, Mato Grosso).