Singleton Strikers 1–1 West Wallsend

Singleton Strikers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

West Wallsend

6/15/2024

NNSW League 1 · Round 19Howe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Singleton Strikers35%

×Draw23%

West Wallsend43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Singleton StrikersExpected goals in this matchWest Wallsend

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.78

Singleton Strikers

1.59

West Wallsend

1.78

West Wallsend creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

1.36

creates per match

1.89

1.68

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Singleton Strikers

1.36

West Wallsend

1.89

allows per match

Singleton Strikers

1.68

West Wallsend

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Singleton Strikers+0.00on par

West Wallsend+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singleton Strikers ↓

West Wallsend →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Singleton Strikers or draw

57%

Singleton Strikers or West Wallsend

77%

Draw or West Wallsend

65%

Winning margin

Singleton Strikers wins by 2+

17%

West Wallsend wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Singleton Strikers 1+ goals

80%

Singleton Strikers 2+ goals

47%

Singleton Strikers 3+ goals

21%

West Wallsend 1+ goals

83%

West Wallsend 2+ goals

53%

West Wallsend 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Singleton Strikers (draw refunded)

45%

West Wallsend (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singleton Strikers at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

West Wallsend away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singleton Strikers attack 1.36 + West Wallsend defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.59

West Wallsend attack 1.89 + Singleton Strikers defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Singleton Strikers scores more

35%

level

23%

West Wallsend scores more

43%

West Wallsend at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "West Wallsend will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff