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Singida Black Stars vs Tabora United — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Singida Black Stars
Singida Black Stars
FT
3 – 0
Tabora United
Tabora United
4/19/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 27Liti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Singida Black Stars58%
×Draw23%
Tabora United19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singida Black Stars
1.76
Tabora United
0.89

Singida Black Stars creates 98% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

creates per match

Singida Black Stars
1.88
Tabora United
0.89

allows per match

Singida Black Stars
0.88
Tabora United
1.64

finishing

Singida Black Stars+0.00on par
Tabora United+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singida Black Stars ↓

Tabora United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Singida Black Stars or draw
81%
Singida Black Stars or Tabora United
77%
Draw or Tabora United
42%

Winning margin

Singida Black Stars wins by 2+
33%
Tabora United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Singida Black Stars 1+ goals
83%
Singida Black Stars 2+ goals
52%
Singida Black Stars 3+ goals
26%
Tabora United 1+ goals
59%
Tabora United 2+ goals
22%
Tabora United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)
75%
Tabora United (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singida Black Stars at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

Tabora United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.64 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singida Black Stars attack 1.88 + Tabora United defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.76

Tabora United attack 0.89 + Singida Black Stars defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Singida Black Stars scores more
58%
level
23%
Tabora United scores more
19%

Singida Black Stars at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Singida Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Singida Black Stars vs Tabora United

Singida Black Stars beat Tabora United 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Liti Stadium in Singida.