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Singida Black Stars vs JKT Tanzania — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Singida Black Stars
Singida Black Stars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
JKT Tanzania
JKT Tanzania
E. Rupia 15'
W. Nangu 67'
9/29/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 6Liti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Singida Black Stars52%
×Draw26%
JKT Tanzania21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singida Black Stars
1.49
JKT Tanzania
0.84

Singida Black Stars creates 77% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 31 away

creates per match

Singida Black Stars
1.88
JKT Tanzania
0.81

allows per match

Singida Black Stars
0.88
JKT Tanzania
1.10

finishing

Singida Black Stars+0.00on par
JKT Tanzania+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singida Black Stars ↓

JKT Tanzania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Singida Black Stars or draw
79%
Singida Black Stars or JKT Tanzania
74%
Draw or JKT Tanzania
48%

Winning margin

Singida Black Stars wins by 2+
27%
JKT Tanzania wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Singida Black Stars 1+ goals
77%
Singida Black Stars 2+ goals
44%
Singida Black Stars 3+ goals
19%
JKT Tanzania 1+ goals
57%
JKT Tanzania 2+ goals
21%
JKT Tanzania 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Singida Black Stars (draw refunded)
71%
JKT Tanzania (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singida Black Stars at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

JKT Tanzania away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singida Black Stars attack 1.88 + JKT Tanzania defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.49

JKT Tanzania attack 0.81 + Singida Black Stars defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Singida Black Stars scores more
52%
level
26%
JKT Tanzania scores more
21%

Singida Black Stars at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Singida Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
E. Rupia
67'
W. Nangu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Singida Black Stars 1–1 JKT Tanzania

Singida Black Stars and JKT Tanzania drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on September 29, 2024.

Goals: E. Rupia (15'), W. Nangu (67').

The match was played at Liti Stadium in Singida.