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Sîngerei vs Grănicerul — Cupa 2020

Sîngerei
Sîngerei
FT
2 – 0
Grănicerul
Grănicerul
8/15/2020CupaCupa · 1st RoundStadionul Sîngerei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sîngerei61%
×Draw22%
Grănicerul17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sîngerei
1.83
Grănicerul
0.83

Sîngerei creates 120% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sîngerei
2.33
Grănicerul
1.33

allows per match

Sîngerei
0.33
Grănicerul
1.33

finishing

Sîngerei+0.00on par
Grănicerul+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sîngerei ↓

Grănicerul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sîngerei or draw
83%
Sîngerei or Grănicerul
78%
Draw or Grănicerul
39%

Winning margin

Sîngerei wins by 2+
36%
Grănicerul wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sîngerei 1+ goals
84%
Sîngerei 2+ goals
54%
Sîngerei 3+ goals
28%
Grănicerul 1+ goals
56%
Grănicerul 2+ goals
20%
Grănicerul 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sîngerei (draw refunded)
79%
Grănicerul (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sîngerei at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Grănicerul away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sîngerei attack 2.33 + Grănicerul defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Grănicerul attack 1.33 + Sîngerei defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sîngerei scores more
61%
level
22%
Grănicerul scores more
17%

Sîngerei at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sîngerei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cupa: Sîngerei 2–0 Grănicerul

Sîngerei beat Grănicerul 2-0 in Cupa on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Sîngerei in Sîngerei.