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Singburi vs Sisaket — FA Cup 2018

Singburi
Singburi
FT
0 – 2
Sisaket
Sisaket
4/4/2018FA CupFA Cup · 1st Qualifying Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Singburi8%
×Draw15%
Sisaket77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singburi
0.75
Sisaket
2.63

Sisaket creates 251% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Singburi
1.25
Sisaket
3.50

allows per match

Singburi
1.75
Sisaket
0.25

finishing

Singburi+0.00on par
Sisaket+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singburi ↓

Sisaket →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–212%
0–311%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Singburi or draw
23%
Singburi or Sisaket
85%
Draw or Sisaket
92%

Winning margin

Singburi wins by 2+
2%
Sisaket wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

Singburi 1+ goals
53%
Singburi 2+ goals
17%
Singburi 3+ goals
4%
Sisaket 1+ goals
93%
Sisaket 2+ goals
73%
Sisaket 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Singburi (draw refunded)
10%
Sisaket (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singburi at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Sisaket away — creates 3.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singburi attack 1.25 + Sisaket defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.75

Sisaket attack 3.50 + Singburi defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Singburi scores more
8%
level
15%
Sisaket scores more
77%

Sisaket at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Sisaket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Singburi vs Sisaket

Sisaket beat Singburi 2-0 in FA Cup on April 4, 2018.