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Singburi vs Muangthong United — FA Cup 2018

Singburi
Singburi
FT
1 – 4
Muangthong United
Muangthong United
6/19/2019FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Singburi13%
×Draw17%
Muangthong United70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singburi
1.00
Muangthong United
2.50

Muangthong United creates 150% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Singburi
1.25
Muangthong United
3.25

allows per match

Singburi
1.75
Muangthong United
0.75

finishing

Singburi+0.00on par
Muangthong United+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singburi ↓

Muangthong United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Singburi or draw
30%
Singburi or Muangthong United
83%
Draw or Muangthong United
87%

Winning margin

Singburi wins by 2+
4%
Muangthong United wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Singburi 1+ goals
63%
Singburi 2+ goals
26%
Singburi 3+ goals
8%
Muangthong United 1+ goals
92%
Muangthong United 2+ goals
71%
Muangthong United 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Singburi (draw refunded)
16%
Muangthong United (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singburi at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Muangthong United away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singburi attack 1.25 + Muangthong United defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Muangthong United attack 3.25 + Singburi defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Singburi scores more
13%
level
17%
Muangthong United scores more
70%

Muangthong United at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Muangthong United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Singburi 1–4 Muangthong United

Muangthong United beat Singburi 4-1 in FA Cup on June 19, 2019.