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Singapore vs Timor-Leste — AFF Championship 2018

Singapore
Singapore
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Timor-Leste
Timor-Leste
11/21/2018AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Group Stage - 4The National Stadium (Singapore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Singapore63%
×Draw19%
Timor-Leste18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singapore
2.25
Timor-Leste
1.10

Singapore creates 105% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Singapore
2.00
Timor-Leste
1.10

allows per match

Singapore
1.10
Timor-Leste
2.50

finishing

Singapore+0.00on par
Timor-Leste+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singapore ↓

Timor-Leste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Singapore or draw
82%
Singapore or Timor-Leste
81%
Draw or Timor-Leste
37%

Winning margin

Singapore wins by 2+
40%
Timor-Leste wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Singapore 1+ goals
89%
Singapore 2+ goals
65%
Singapore 3+ goals
39%
Timor-Leste 1+ goals
67%
Timor-Leste 2+ goals
30%
Timor-Leste 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Singapore (draw refunded)
78%
Timor-Leste (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singapore at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Timor-Leste away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singapore attack 2.00 + Timor-Leste defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Timor-Leste attack 1.10 + Singapore defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Singapore scores more
63%
level
19%
Timor-Leste scores more
18%

Singapore at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Singapore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Singapore vs Timor-Leste

Singapore beat Timor-Leste 6-1 in AFF Championship on November 21, 2018.

The match was played at The National Stadium (Singapore).