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Singapore U19 vs Timor-Leste U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Singapore U19
Singapore U19
FT
0 – 1
Timor-Leste U19
Timor-Leste U19
7/5/2022AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 2Stadion Madya Gelora Bung Karno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Singapore U1940%
×Draw23%
Timor-Leste U1937%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Singapore U19
1.70
Timor-Leste U19
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Singapore U19
1.00
Timor-Leste U19
1.40

allows per match

Singapore U19
1.83
Timor-Leste U19
2.40

finishing

Singapore U19+0.00on par
Timor-Leste U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Singapore U19 ↓

Timor-Leste U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Singapore U19 or draw
63%
Singapore U19 or Timor-Leste U19
77%
Draw or Timor-Leste U19
60%

Winning margin

Singapore U19 wins by 2+
21%
Timor-Leste U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Singapore U19 1+ goals
82%
Singapore U19 2+ goals
51%
Singapore U19 3+ goals
24%
Timor-Leste U19 1+ goals
80%
Timor-Leste U19 2+ goals
48%
Timor-Leste U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Singapore U19 (draw refunded)
52%
Timor-Leste U19 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Singapore U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Timor-Leste U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Singapore U19 attack 1.00 + Timor-Leste U19 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Timor-Leste U19 attack 1.40 + Singapore U19 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Singapore U19 scores more
40%
level
23%
Timor-Leste U19 scores more
37%

Singapore U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Singapore U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF U19 Championship: Singapore U19 0–1 Timor-Leste U19

Timor-Leste U19 beat Singapore U19 1-0 in AFF U19 Championship on July 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Madya Gelora Bung Karno in Jakarta.