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Sindri vs Völsungur — 2. Deild 2018

Sindri
Sindri
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Völsungur
Völsungur
6/11/20232. Deild2. Deild · Round 7Jökulfellsvöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sindri45%
×Draw23%
Völsungur32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindri
1.75
Völsungur
1.45

Sindri creates 21% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 76 away

creates per match

Sindri
1.58
Völsungur
1.57

allows per match

Sindri
1.33
Völsungur
1.93

finishing

Sindri+0.00on par
Völsungur+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindri ↓

Völsungur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sindri or draw
68%
Sindri or Völsungur
77%
Draw or Völsungur
55%

Winning margin

Sindri wins by 2+
24%
Völsungur wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sindri 1+ goals
83%
Sindri 2+ goals
52%
Sindri 3+ goals
25%
Völsungur 1+ goals
77%
Völsungur 2+ goals
42%
Völsungur 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sindri (draw refunded)
58%
Völsungur (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindri at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Völsungur away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.93 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindri attack 1.58 + Völsungur defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.75

Völsungur attack 1.57 + Sindri defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sindri scores more
45%
level
23%
Völsungur scores more
32%

Sindri at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sindri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Sindri 0–1 Völsungur

Völsungur beat Sindri 1-0 in 2. Deild on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Jökulfellsvöllurinn in Höfn í Hornafirði.