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Sindri vs Spyrnir — Cup 2019

Sindri
Sindri
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Spyrnir
Spyrnir
4/9/2022CupCup · 1st RoundMánavöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sindri81%
×Draw10%
Spyrnir9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindri
4.17
Spyrnir
1.42

Sindri creates 194% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sindri
3.00
Spyrnir
0.33

allows per match

Sindri
2.50
Spyrnir
5.33

finishing

Sindri+0.00on par
Spyrnir+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindri ↓

Spyrnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–18%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Sindri or draw
91%
Sindri or Spyrnir
90%
Draw or Spyrnir
19%

Winning margin

Sindri wins by 2+
65%
Spyrnir wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sindri 1+ goals
98%
Sindri 2+ goals
91%
Sindri 3+ goals
75%
Spyrnir 1+ goals
76%
Spyrnir 2+ goals
41%
Spyrnir 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sindri (draw refunded)
90%
Spyrnir (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindri at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Spyrnir away — creates 0.33, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindri attack 3.00 + Spyrnir defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.17

Spyrnir attack 0.33 + Sindri defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Sindri scores more
81%
level
10%
Spyrnir scores more
9%

Sindri at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Sindri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sindri 6–0 Spyrnir

Sindri beat Spyrnir 6-0 in Cup on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Mánavöllur in Höfn í Hornafirði.