Sindri 3–5 IA Akranes: Result & Stats | Cup

Sindri

3 – 5

HT: 1 – 1

IA Akranes

5/24/2022

Cup · Round of 32Sindravellir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sindri39%

×Draw19%

IA Akranes42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SindriExpected goals in this matchIA Akranes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

2.54

Sindri

2.43

IA Akranes

2.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

3.00

creates per match

2.57

2.50

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Sindri

3.00

IA Akranes

2.57

allows per match

Sindri

2.50

IA Akranes

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sindri+0.00on par

IA Akranes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes84
No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindri ↓

IA Akranes →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–14%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–02%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Sindri or draw

58%

Sindri or IA Akranes

81%

Draw or IA Akranes

61%

Winning margin

Sindri wins by 2+

22%

IA Akranes wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Sindri 1+ goals

91%

Sindri 2+ goals

69%

Sindri 3+ goals

43%

IA Akranes 1+ goals

92%

IA Akranes 2+ goals

72%

IA Akranes 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Sindri (draw refunded)

48%

IA Akranes (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

79%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sindri at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

IA Akranes away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sindri attack 3.00 + IA Akranes defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.43

IA Akranes attack 2.57 + Sindri defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sindri scores more

39%

level

19%

IA Akranes scores more

42%

IA Akranes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IA Akranes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff