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Sindri vs Höttur / Huginn — Cup 2019

Sindri
Sindri
AET
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Höttur / Huginn
Höttur / Huginn
4/8/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundFjarðabyggðarhöllin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sindri58%
×Draw18%
Höttur / Huginn25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindri
2.88
Höttur / Huginn
1.88

Sindri creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sindri
3.00
Höttur / Huginn
1.25

allows per match

Sindri
2.50
Höttur / Huginn
2.75

finishing

Sindri+0.00on par
Höttur / Huginn+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindri ↓

Höttur / Huginn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Sindri or draw
75%
Sindri or Höttur / Huginn
82%
Draw or Höttur / Huginn
42%

Winning margin

Sindri wins by 2+
38%
Höttur / Huginn wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sindri 1+ goals
94%
Sindri 2+ goals
78%
Sindri 3+ goals
54%
Höttur / Huginn 1+ goals
85%
Höttur / Huginn 2+ goals
56%
Höttur / Huginn 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sindri (draw refunded)
70%
Höttur / Huginn (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindri at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Höttur / Huginn away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindri attack 3.00 + Höttur / Huginn defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.88

Höttur / Huginn attack 1.25 + Sindri defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sindri scores more
58%
level
18%
Höttur / Huginn scores more
25%

Sindri at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sindri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sindri 4–3 Höttur / Huginn

Sindri beat Höttur / Huginn 4-3 in Cup on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Fjarðabyggðarhöllin in Reyðarfjörður.