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Sindri vs Fylkir — Cup 2019

Sindri
Sindri
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Fylkir
Fylkiradvanced
4/20/2023CupCup · Round of 32Mánavöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sindri30%
×Draw18%
Fylkir51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindri
2.13
Fylkir
2.75

Fylkir creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sindri
3.00
Fylkir
3.00

allows per match

Sindri
2.50
Fylkir
1.25

finishing

Sindri+0.00on par
Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindri ↓

Fylkir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Sindri or draw
49%
Sindri or Fylkir
82%
Draw or Fylkir
70%

Winning margin

Sindri wins by 2+
16%
Fylkir wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Sindri 1+ goals
88%
Sindri 2+ goals
63%
Sindri 3+ goals
35%
Fylkir 1+ goals
93%
Fylkir 2+ goals
75%
Fylkir 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Sindri (draw refunded)
37%
Fylkir (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindri at home — creates 3.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Fylkir away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindri attack 3.00 + Fylkir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Fylkir attack 3.00 + Sindri defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sindri scores more
30%
level
18%
Fylkir scores more
51%

Fylkir at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Sindri 2–4 Fylkir

Fylkir beat Sindri 4-2 in Cup on April 20, 2023.

The match was played at Mánavöllur in Höfn í Hornafirði.