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Sindjelic Beograd vs Semendrija 1924 — Prva Liga 2018

Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Semendrija 1924
Semendrija 1924
9/13/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 9Stadion FK Sinđelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sindjelic Beograd41%
×Draw28%
Semendrija 192431%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindjelic Beograd
1.25
Semendrija 1924
1.04

Sindjelic Beograd creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 71 away

creates per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
Semendrija 1924
0.96

allows per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
Semendrija 1924
1.39

finishing

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par
Semendrija 1924+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindjelic Beograd ↓

Semendrija 1924 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sindjelic Beograd or draw
69%
Sindjelic Beograd or Semendrija 1924
72%
Draw or Semendrija 1924
59%

Winning margin

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
18%
Semendrija 1924 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
71%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
36%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
13%
Semendrija 1924 1+ goals
65%
Semendrija 1924 2+ goals
28%
Semendrija 1924 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
57%
Semendrija 1924 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindjelic Beograd at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Semendrija 1924 away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.39 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindjelic Beograd attack 1.12 + Semendrija 1924 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Semendrija 1924 attack 0.96 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sindjelic Beograd scores more
41%
level
28%
Semendrija 1924 scores more
31%

Sindjelic Beograd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sindjelic Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sindjelic Beograd vs Semendrija 1924

Semendrija 1924 beat Sindjelic Beograd 3-1 in Prva Liga on September 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sinđelić in Beograd.