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Sindjelic Beograd vs Novi Pazar — Prva Liga 2018

Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
FT
0 – 0
Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
2/27/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 23Stadion FK Sinđelić (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sindjelic Beograd51%
×Draw27%
Novi Pazar22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindjelic Beograd
1.43
Novi Pazar
0.83

Sindjelic Beograd creates 72% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
Novi Pazar
0.53

allows per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
Novi Pazar
1.74

finishing

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par
Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindjelic Beograd ↓

Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sindjelic Beograd or draw
78%
Sindjelic Beograd or Novi Pazar
73%
Draw or Novi Pazar
49%

Winning margin

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
25%
Novi Pazar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
76%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
42%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
17%
Novi Pazar 1+ goals
56%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
20%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
70%
Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindjelic Beograd at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindjelic Beograd attack 1.12 + Novi Pazar defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.43

Novi Pazar attack 0.53 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sindjelic Beograd scores more
51%
level
27%
Novi Pazar scores more
22%

Sindjelic Beograd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sindjelic Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sindjelic Beograd vs Novi Pazar

Sindjelic Beograd and Novi Pazar drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on February 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sinđelić (Beograd).