Sindjelic Beograd 1–2 Metalac GM: Result & Stats

Sindjelic Beograd

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Metalac GM

12/4/2019

Prva Liga · Round 23Stadion FK Sinđelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sindjelic Beograd40%

×Draw29%

Metalac GM30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sindjelic BeogradExpected goals in this matchMetalac GM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.99

Sindjelic Beograd

1.19

Metalac GM

0.99

Sindjelic Beograd creates 20% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 70 away

1.12

creates per match

0.86

1.12

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sindjelic Beograd

1.12

Metalac GM

0.86

allows per match

Sindjelic Beograd

1.12

Metalac GM

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindjelic Beograd ↓

Metalac GM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sindjelic Beograd or draw

70%

Sindjelic Beograd or Metalac GM

71%

Draw or Metalac GM

60%

Winning margin

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+

17%

Metalac GM wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals

70%

Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals

33%

Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals

12%

Metalac GM 1+ goals

63%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

26%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)

57%

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindjelic Beograd at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindjelic Beograd attack 1.12 + Metalac GM defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Metalac GM attack 0.86 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sindjelic Beograd scores more

40%

level

29%

Metalac GM scores more

30%

Sindjelic Beograd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sindjelic Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff