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Sindjelic Beograd vs Kabel Novi Sad — Prva Liga 2018

Sindjelic Beograd
Sindjelic Beograd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kabel Novi Sad
Kabel Novi Sad
11/13/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 19Stadion FK Sinđelić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sindjelic Beograd42%
×Draw28%
Kabel Novi Sad29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sindjelic Beograd
1.27
Kabel Novi Sad
1.01

Sindjelic Beograd creates 26% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 71 away

creates per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
Kabel Novi Sad
0.90

allows per match

Sindjelic Beograd
1.12
Kabel Novi Sad
1.41

finishing

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par
Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindjelic Beograd ↓

Kabel Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sindjelic Beograd or draw
71%
Sindjelic Beograd or Kabel Novi Sad
72%
Draw or Kabel Novi Sad
58%

Winning margin

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+
19%
Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals
72%
Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals
36%
Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals
14%
Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals
64%
Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals
27%
Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)
59%
Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindjelic Beograd at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Kabel Novi Sad away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindjelic Beograd attack 1.12 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.90 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sindjelic Beograd scores more
42%
level
28%
Kabel Novi Sad scores more
29%

Sindjelic Beograd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sindjelic Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Sindjelic Beograd 1–1 Kabel Novi Sad

Sindjelic Beograd and Kabel Novi Sad drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on November 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sinđelić in Beograd.