Sindjelic Beograd 3–1 Borac Cacak: Result & Stats

Sindjelic Beograd

FT

3 – 1

Borac Cacak

12/5/2018

Prva Liga · Round 21Stadion FK Sinđelić (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Sindjelic Beograd42%

×Draw28%

Borac Cacak30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sindjelic BeogradExpected goals in this matchBorac Cacak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.06

Sindjelic Beograd

1.31

Borac Cacak

1.06

Sindjelic Beograd creates 24% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 74 away

1.12

creates per match

1.01

1.12

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sindjelic Beograd

1.12

Borac Cacak

1.01

allows per match

Sindjelic Beograd

1.12

Borac Cacak

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sindjelic Beograd ↓

Borac Cacak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sindjelic Beograd or draw

70%

Sindjelic Beograd or Borac Cacak

72%

Draw or Borac Cacak

58%

Winning margin

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+

19%

Borac Cacak wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals

73%

Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals

38%

Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals

14%

Borac Cacak 1+ goals

65%

Borac Cacak 2+ goals

29%

Borac Cacak 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)

58%

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sindjelic Beograd at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Borac Cacak away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.50 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sindjelic Beograd attack 1.12 + Borac Cacak defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Borac Cacak attack 1.01 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sindjelic Beograd scores more

42%

level

28%

Borac Cacak scores more

30%

Sindjelic Beograd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sindjelic Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff