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Sinđelić vs Župa — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Sinđelić
Sinđelić
FT
7 – 0
Župa
Župa
9/16/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 7Stadion Mašinac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sinđelić64%
×Draw19%
Župa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sinđelić
2.25
Župa
1.04

Sinđelić creates 116% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sinđelić
1.92
Župa
1.26

allows per match

Sinđelić
0.82
Župa
2.58

finishing

Sinđelić+0.00on par
Župa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sinđelić ↓

Župa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sinđelić or draw
84%
Sinđelić or Župa
81%
Draw or Župa
36%

Winning margin

Sinđelić wins by 2+
41%
Župa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sinđelić 1+ goals
89%
Sinđelić 2+ goals
65%
Sinđelić 3+ goals
39%
Župa 1+ goals
65%
Župa 2+ goals
28%
Župa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sinđelić (draw refunded)
80%
Župa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sinđelić at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.82 · 71 matches

Župa away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sinđelić attack 1.92 + Župa defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.25

Župa attack 1.26 + Sinđelić defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sinđelić scores more
64%
level
19%
Župa scores more
16%

Sinđelić at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sinđelić will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Sinđelić 7–0 Župa

Sinđelić beat Župa 7-0 in Srpska Liga - East on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Mašinac in Niš.