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Simrishamn vs VMA — Division 2 - Södra Götaland 2019

Simrishamn
Simrishamn
FT
4 – 0
VMA
VMA
10/8/2023Division 2 - Södra GötalandDivision 2 - Södra Götaland · Södra Götaland - 24Korsavads IC A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Simrishamn59%
×Draw19%
VMA22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simrishamn
2.37
VMA
1.39

Simrishamn creates 71% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Simrishamn
1.65
VMA
0.92

allows per match

Simrishamn
1.85
VMA
3.08

finishing

Simrishamn+0.00on par
VMA+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simrishamn ↓

VMA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Simrishamn or draw
78%
Simrishamn or VMA
81%
Draw or VMA
41%

Winning margin

Simrishamn wins by 2+
37%
VMA wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Simrishamn 1+ goals
91%
Simrishamn 2+ goals
68%
Simrishamn 3+ goals
42%
VMA 1+ goals
75%
VMA 2+ goals
40%
VMA 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Simrishamn (draw refunded)
73%
VMA (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simrishamn at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

VMA away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simrishamn attack 1.65 + VMA defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.37

VMA attack 0.92 + Simrishamn defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Simrishamn scores more
59%
level
19%
VMA scores more
22%

Simrishamn at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Simrishamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Södra Götaland: Simrishamn 4–0 VMA

Simrishamn beat VMA 4-0 in Division 2 - Södra Götaland on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Korsavads IC A-plan in Simrishamn.