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Simrishamn vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Svenska Cupen 2019

Simrishamn
Simrishamn
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
8/22/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundKorsavads IC A-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Simrishamn7%
×Draw13%
Varbergs BoIS FC80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simrishamn
0.76
Varbergs BoIS FC
2.88

Varbergs BoIS FC creates 279% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 17 away

creates per match

Simrishamn
0.33
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.76

allows per match

Simrishamn
4.00
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.18

finishing

Simrishamn+0.00on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simrishamn ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–311%
0–48%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Simrishamn or draw
20%
Simrishamn or Varbergs BoIS FC
87%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
93%

Winning margin

Simrishamn wins by 2+
2%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
60%

Team goals

Simrishamn 1+ goals
53%
Simrishamn 2+ goals
18%
Simrishamn 3+ goals
4%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
94%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
78%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
54%

Draw no bet

Simrishamn (draw refunded)
8%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simrishamn at home — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simrishamn attack 0.33 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.76

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.76 + Simrishamn defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Simrishamn scores more
7%
level
13%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
80%

Varbergs BoIS FC at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Varbergs BoIS FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simrishamn vs Varbergs BoIS FC

Varbergs BoIS FC beat Simrishamn 3-1 in Svenska Cupen on August 22, 2024.

The match was played at Korsavads IC A-plan in Simrishamn.