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Simmeringer SC vs Post — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Simmeringer SC
Simmeringer SC
FT
0 – 2
Post
Post
8/27/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 2Sportplatz Simmering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Simmeringer SC53%
×Draw21%
Post26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simmeringer SC
2.13
Post
1.46

Simmeringer SC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 43 away

creates per match

Simmeringer SC
1.46
Post
1.12

allows per match

Simmeringer SC
1.80
Post
2.79

finishing

Simmeringer SC+0.00on par
Post+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simmeringer SC ↓

Post →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Simmeringer SC or draw
74%
Simmeringer SC or Post
79%
Draw or Post
47%

Winning margin

Simmeringer SC wins by 2+
31%
Post wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Simmeringer SC 1+ goals
88%
Simmeringer SC 2+ goals
63%
Simmeringer SC 3+ goals
35%
Post 1+ goals
77%
Post 2+ goals
43%
Post 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Simmeringer SC (draw refunded)
67%
Post (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simmeringer SC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.80 · 46 matches

Post away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.79 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simmeringer SC attack 1.46 + Post defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.13

Post attack 1.12 + Simmeringer SC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Simmeringer SC scores more
53%
level
21%
Post scores more
26%

Simmeringer SC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Simmeringer SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simmeringer SC vs Post

Post beat Simmeringer SC 2-0 in Landesliga - Wien on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Simmering in Wien.