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Simba vs Young Africans — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Simba
Simba
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Young Africans
Young Africans
10/19/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 8Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Simba45%
×Draw27%
Young Africans28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.42
Young Africans
1.06

Simba creates 34% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 112 away

creates per match

Simba
2.37
Young Africans
1.60

allows per match

Simba
0.52
Young Africans
0.46

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Young Africans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Simba or draw
72%
Simba or Young Africans
73%
Draw or Young Africans
55%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
22%
Young Africans wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
76%
Simba 2+ goals
41%
Simba 3+ goals
17%
Young Africans 1+ goals
65%
Young Africans 2+ goals
29%
Young Africans 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
62%
Young Africans (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.52 · 111 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.46 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 2.37 + Young Africans defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Young Africans attack 1.60 + Simba defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Simba scores more
45%
level
27%
Young Africans scores more
28%

Simba at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Simba 0–1 Young Africans

Young Africans beat Simba 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.