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Simba vs Wydad AC — CAF Champions League 2019

Simba
Simbaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
4/22/2023CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsBenjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Simba51%
×Draw28%
Wydad AC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Simba
1.36
Wydad AC
0.75

Simba creates 81% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 30 away

creates per match

Simba
1.79
Wydad AC
0.87

allows per match

Simba
0.63
Wydad AC
0.93

finishing

Simba+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Simba or draw
79%
Simba or Wydad AC
72%
Draw or Wydad AC
49%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+
25%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals
74%
Simba 2+ goals
39%
Simba 3+ goals
16%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
53%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
17%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)
71%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.63 · 24 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 1.79 + Wydad AC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.36

Wydad AC attack 0.87 + Simba defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Simba scores more
51%
level
28%
Wydad AC scores more
21%

Simba at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Simba vs Wydad AC

Simba beat Wydad AC 1-0 in CAF Champions League on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.