Simba 1–2 Tanzania Prisons: Result & Stats

Simba

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tanzania Prisons

3/6/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 19Jamhuri Stadium Morogoro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Simba65%

×Draw22%

Tanzania Prisons13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SimbaExpected goals in this matchTanzania Prisons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.64

Simba

1.81

Tanzania Prisons

0.64

Simba creates 183% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 114 away

2.37

creates per match

0.75

0.52

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Simba

2.37

Tanzania Prisons

0.75

allows per match

Simba

0.52

Tanzania Prisons

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Simba+0.00on par

Tanzania Prisons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Simba ↓

Tanzania Prisons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Simba or draw

87%

Simba or Tanzania Prisons

78%

Draw or Tanzania Prisons

35%

Winning margin

Simba wins by 2+

39%

Tanzania Prisons wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Simba 1+ goals

84%

Simba 2+ goals

54%

Simba 3+ goals

27%

Tanzania Prisons 1+ goals

47%

Tanzania Prisons 2+ goals

14%

Tanzania Prisons 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Simba (draw refunded)

84%

Tanzania Prisons (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Simba at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.52 · 111 matches

Tanzania Prisons away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.24 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Simba attack 2.37 + Tanzania Prisons defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.81

Tanzania Prisons attack 0.75 + Simba defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Simba scores more

65%

level

22%

Tanzania Prisons scores more

13%

Simba at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff